Uncertainty and risk in system models on climate
impacts in Bavaria – BayRisk
To assess the consequences of mitigation and adaptation strategies, public and private decision-makers need not only detailed forecasts of the most likely impacts of climate change, but also estimates of the uncertainties associated with such forecasts.
Subproject 5 of BLIZ (BayRisk) at the University of Regensburg deals with quantifying uncertainties in model projections. BayRisk will create uncertainty estimates of the ecological models used in BLIZ, using Monte-Carlo simulations and Bayesian statistical methods. The calculated uncertainties are then used in cooperation with the socio-economic subprojects of BLIZ to derive probability distributions and risks for economically relevant parameters. Hence, BayRisk forms a link between the ecological subprojects 1-3 and the socio-economic subprojects 4 & 6. The latter conduct research on land use decisions and the evaluation of risks and options for action.
What are the uncertainties of various management options under climate change? Subproject 5 calculates forecasting uncertainties for the predictions made by BLIZ. (Photo: Rammig)
Prof. Dr. Florian Hartig
Group for Theoretical Ecology
Faculty of Biology and Pre-Clinical Medicine
University of Regensburg
Tel: +49 941 9434316