Modeling Adjustment to new climatic conditions in a landscape context: Identifying risk zones and management options.
Adjustment (adaptation) of species and communities to new climatic conditions and thus maintenance of ecosystem services will depend on three critical components: (i) the ability of species viz. individuals to tolerate changing climatic conditions and extreme events, (ii) genetic diversity within (meta)populations allowing _adaptation_ to new conditions, and (iii) establishment of new species better adapted to the new conditions. From a scientific as well as a applied perspective it is important to foresee how well adjustment will work at different locations and which management options might help to mitigate negative effects of climate change for certain ecosystem services like pollination, or production of biomass.
By use of spatially explicit computer simulations we want (i) to investigate the particular role of the landscape context for local and regional adjustment, (ii) characterize landscape elements that may either be critical for promoting community adjustment (e.g. warm urban environments) or that are particularly vulnerable to climate change (e.g. large-scale homogeneous landscapes), and (iii) identify management options that may help to promote adaptation to new climatic conditions and thus mitigate negative effects on ecosystem services.
PD Dr. Thomas Hovestadt
Theoretical Evolutionary Ecology Group
University of Würzburg
Tel: +49 931 3183083